I outlined this on February 9, 2003. On the 11th, Alan Greenspan spoke and mentioned this subject. Specifically, he said, "Geopolitical tensions have created formidable barriers to new investment and thus to a resumption of vigorous expansion of overall economic activity."
Is everybody waiting?
It seems as if there are regular articles in the Wall Street Journal on companies holding back investment to see what happens. At a recent conference someone commented that there is $7 trillion on the sidelines waiting to be invested in the stock market and into capital goods.
However, business is still being done. Deals are happening, sales are being made and some segments of the economy are robust. Some areas of the country are in better shape than others. We here in Seattle are still on the downside no matter how you measure it. In fact, Mr. Greenspan was cautious about new economic stimulus, saying it may "not be necessary."
Transactions are an indicator
The world of small business sales is an indicator of what's happening. In Seattle, there are lots of buyers. One would think there would be lots of sellers as the demographics are there, the motivations should be there and those waiting for a return to the late nineties now realize that won't happen. There should be deals, deals and more deals.
But sellers are a little scarce. Most intermediaries and brokers I talk to are saying the same thing. That they are expecting new listings shortly. Too many sellers are waiting to see what will happen and are saying that "wait and see" is the reason why they're stalling.
What can we do
As I write this I realize that I'm in the same situation as everyone else. I have prospective clients waiting, thinking and analyzing their options. My business buyer clients have sellers doing the same. Other clients have customers being more cautious than ever.
Eventually business owners have to sell, equipment has to be replaced and inventory replenished. Until the time when everything breaks loose the only thing we can do is to keep doing the basics. Those little things that you know you're supposed to do. Make that extra call or two every day. Ask for the referral. Market yourself while everyone else pulls back.
As I follow that advice myself I realize it may sound better (and easier) in practice than in reality. The bottom line is, make your customers look at the alternative. If what you offer is better (and maybe today it has to be much better) than what they have or what else they could do, you'll get the business sooner vs. later. It's the age old salesperson's objective. Make them tell you their problem, have them understand the implication of the problem and demonstrate the value your solution brings. If they haven't reached that point of no return (there is no other option besides owning my own business, there is no other option besides replacing that old machine, etc.) it's going to be tough to get someone to take action. Use your insight and skills to make them realize they're at the point of no return and the hurt of doing what they're doing now is much worse than the hurt of investing in what you have.